sports column by Will Leitch, 11/15/96

Few teams have been so hard to pin down or to predict than this year's Illinois men's basketball team.

I'll be honest with you. I've seen Lon Kruger coach, maybe, three or four times. One was in the Final Four a few years ago, a couple times were during really boring late-night ESPN games and the most recent was Tuesday, when Illinois beat Austrailia-Newcastle 77-66 at the Assembly Hall.

What do I think? Good question. It appeared Illinois was running more than I remember them running last season, but they probably had more to do with the fact that Kruger played everybody and their mother than it did with actual offensive philosophies.

Victor Chukwedebe, the new Illinois big guy, was impressive, scoring 13 points and grabbing 11 rebounds. He says his goal is to someday lead the Big Ten in rebounding. This year would be a fine time for him to accomplish that one.

But these fellers are going to be hard to peg. I don't know much more about them now than I did before the exhibition opener. We all know Kiwane Garris will be the leader, Bryant Notree will play with the most heart, Jerry Hester will score 30 points half the time and none the other half, Jerry Gee will make great moves to the basket and then miss the layup and Chris Gandy's lack of physical presence inside will be really annoying half the time and just a little annoying the other half.

But we knew that already. How will the team play? Will they finish in the top 25? Will they advance far in the NCAA tournament? Will they have more heart than the football team? God help Kruger if they don't.

Sports Illustrated says Illinois is the 12th best team in the country. The Chicago Sun-Times said they won't even make it to the NCAAs.

I have a feeling they'll be in limbo most of the season. It won't be like last year, where Illinois roared out of the gate, only to choke the rest of the way. Every game promises to be an adventure (with the exception of the usual Illini Classic blowouts and home games with Coppin State, Chicago State and Northwestern). But here's a quick glance at the individual games in which the real Illinois men's basketball team is likely to be revealed:

Nov. 22 at Illinois-Chicago. The season opener, exactly one week from today. This one will be crazy, with jilted ex-Illini assistant Jimmy Collins (complete with fellow ex-Illini assistants Dick Nagy, Mark Coomes and Mark Bial as his assistants) battling Kruger's budding institution. The emotions will be running high, and if somehow Collins' undermanned Flames end up winning, look for the Chicago papers (and this one as well) to be on the attack. Look for more about this one in next week's column.

Dec. 3 at California: The Golden Bears are down a little this year, what with a new coach and no Shareef Abdur-Rahim to dominate underneath. This would be a big early-season road victory, especially with a possible loss waiting for Illinois at the United Center against UCLA.

Dec. 28 vs. Missouri (in St. Louis): The Braggin' Rights series takes on extra relevance this year, considering the Tigers are down, and the Illini will be looking to pad the "W" column before entering Big Ten play. In this one, you can throw out the records!

Jan. 22 at Michigan State: The Spartans crushed Illinois' postseason hopes twice last season, and since MSU shouldn't be too tough this year, the Illini will have to consider this one a must-win on the road.

Feb. 25 at Penn State: Ditto the Michigan State contest. The Nittany Lions are a much better team than the Spartans, but probably not as talented as the Illini. But Penn State will be fighting for an NCAA bid, so they'll take this one seriously.

Mar. 9 at Purdue: Illinois has somehow won here the past two seasons, even though the Boilers have won three Big Ten title in a row. If the Illini can pull off another one in the last game of the regular season, they could end up with quite a selling point for the selection committee.

If Illinois wins all six of these games, look for its record to be about 22-8, 12-6 in the conference. Don't hold your breath, but it could happen. And if they lose half of them, specifically the Big Ten games, they're 19-11, 9-9, and they miss the tournament.

It's going to be one of those years.